Oscar’s Grind system

Oscar’s grind is a positive progression system. This means that bets are only increased following wins, not losses. It was devised by mathematician Allan Wilson and published in ‘Casino Gambler’s Guide’ (1965). Oscar’s system is named after a craps player who claimed to have never lost in Vegas using this method.

The premise of Oscar’s grind is simple, to win one unit per series. Each series begins with a bet of one unit. After wins, the bet increases by one unit each time. After losses, the bet remains the same as the pervious bet. So a losing bet of two units would call for another bet of two units afterwards. If this won, the player would increase to three units until all losses were recovered and they were up by one unit. At this point a new series begins. Winning the first hand means that the series is complete and a new series begins. Profit is locked in by pocketing this profit unit at the end of each series and only playing with the initial budget.

The one caveat to the system outlined above is to never place a bet that could result in a win of more than one unit. If, for example, you win a four unit bet and are only two units down in the series, rather than increasing the next bet to five units, the player would reduce the next bet to three units. If this won, the three unit win would cover the minus two units and give one unit in profit.

The advantage of the Oscar’s grind betting system is that players can endure longer runs of losses without hitting table limits or blowing their bankroll (compared with negative progression systems). At the same time, a series of wins will soon achieve the goal of making the one unit series profit because bets after wins are increased.

Players who use Oscar’s system say that it works most effectively when the single betting unit is not greater than 2% of the player’s bankroll. So a $5 base bet requires a bankroll not less than $250. It is also imperative to set win and loss limits for the session. While this figure will be determined by you, it is advisable to set this limit as a maximum of 50% of the bankroll. So the loss or win limit in this case should be no greater than +/-$125.

Wilson calculated that Oscar would risk reaching the $500 craps limit playing with a $1 betting unit once in 4,250 sessions. If Oscar ever did hit this limit because of a long losing streak, it was estimated that he would be down by over $13,000. This is because, while the table limit has only just been hit, a long series of losses of $100, $200, $300 or $400 have already been made. This is why the loss limit is vital. Providing this limit falls well short of the maximum table bet, players are securing themselves against colossal losses using the system. Keeping losses to affordable levels is the most fundamental aspect of playing any casino game!

Using Oscar’s system, the player should be able to gain a series of small wins within the short term. Provided stop-losses are employed there is little chance of big losses. By the same token big wins are impossible within any series due to the structure of the system. In order to make a profit it is necessary to play several sessions, quitting when the number of pocketed chips equals the win-limit for the day.

Like all betting systems, this is reliant on hitting winning streaks at some point, which cannot be predicted. Using the system, it can take a long series of wins to overcome a longer series of losses, at the end of which the player is only up by one unit. Being ‘locked in’ to play in order to recover losses can be alarming for inexperienced players.

Probably the biggest disadvantage of the Oscar’s grind system is that the player needs to concentrate in order to keep track of the series balance. During a long sequence of hands this can be difficult, especially when trying to remember basic strategy or card counting at the same time. Not playing to correct basic strategy will be more detrimental to the player, causing more losses, and locking them in to an even longer play session. It can therefore be a difficult cycle to break free from.